In our seasonal approach to the market, we break the year down into 4 seasonal periods. We consider than we are now in the April-June pre-summer seasonal period. Those reading this may contact us to see our market movement expectations for this seasonal period.
As to where we are, after spending a couple of weeks attempting to mount a 1st pre-summer recovery wave off the April 5th low of $2.632, the market was unable to recover beyond the previous week’s $2.729 last week, and as expected, the first recovery move ended up peaking by the $2.80’s. Basically this attempt ended up being simply 2-weeks of sideways consolidation in the manner we said was looking likely in our 4/14/19 report.
As to last week’s movement, the market appears to have finally focused in on the very large improvement taking place in storage this month and simply opened the week lower at $2.646 and proceeded to fall sharply though the week down to the upper $2.40’s where it closed the week at $2.49. Its downside progress was impressive as it merely paused at support points at $2.632 and at the winter seasonal low of $2.543.
In summary, it appears that our 1st anticipated recovery of the pre-summer seasonal period peaked at $2.729 and that the market has transitioned into a 1st decline phase. With this move below the $2.543, it certainly looks as if our thoughts about this year’s pre-summer movement “playing out in context with a declining market” are on target.
As to the coming week, the NYMEX natural gas futures market is currently resting 17-cents below the previous week at $2.49 after a week where it came unglued from the $2.66 area and headed lower in a concerted manner. We anticipate the market continuing lower in the coming week, but it may not continue in the rather straight line manner that it did this past week.
Much more detail on projected price level and timing of market movement for our entire April-June pre-summer season is included in our weekly SMC Natural Gas publication. Our publication can be sampled by contacting (501) 240-6700 or SMCnatgas@aol.com.
Bio of SMC natural gas advisory service:
SMC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC") as a Commodity Trading Advisor ("CTA"), and as such, it has had the ability to trade speculatively for others and to provide advice to outside entities in regard to movement in NYMEX natural gas futures. At this time, SMC is solely engaged in the latter activity.
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This post was written by Louis Rose