Weekly Reports

October
25
2013

Friday, October 25, 2013 – Weekly Edition

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Dec 13 began its week at 83.11 and finished it at 79.08 for a loss of 381 points and traded within a very negatively skewed 464 point trading range. Dec 13 set 9-month records for daily lows this week as well. Weekly, the front month has not settled this low since Jan 18, when Mar 13 finished it’s week at 78.55, and only once between then and today did the front month finish below 80.00. Dec 13 OI dropped approximately 8K contracts while Mar 14 picked up around 4K.

October
18
2013

Friday, October 18, 2013 – Weekly Edition

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Dec 13 began the week at 83.51 and finished it at 83.11, giving up 26 points off of last week’s settlement and trading a very tight 183 point range – a range that would not be at all uncommon on any given normal day for the front month. We had called for a 300 point trading range in last week’s prediction (83.00 – 86.00) with an acknowledgement that price could trade lower, which, of course, it did – but not by much. For this week we will call the range at 82.00 – 86.00 on the inside and 81.50 – 87.50 on the outside with an upward bias, directionally. Should the current consolidation phase give way, we would expect the direction to be upward, at least initially. We will call for a gain on this week’s 83.11 settlement as well, but probably by less than 150 – 200 points

October
11
2013

Friday, October 11, 2013 – Weekly Edition

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Dec 13 finished it’s the week at 83.37, a 238 point loss on the week on trading volume of approximately 75.5 K contracts and OI of approximately 124K on Thursday vs just over 133K for the previous week. The weekly chart continues to show Dec 13’s consolidation phase. Dec 13 has given up 71 points in the 7 weeks since the collapse of the rally to nearly 94.00, and it is currently trading in the middle of the 30-week regression channel (Figure 1). Weekly, we calculate an approximate 54% chance for a settlement on Friday, Oct 18 greater than this week’s 83.37 (Table 2), with only an approximate 11% chance of settling 200 or more points on this week’s settlement.

October
4
2013

Friday, October 4, 2013 – Weekly Edition

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The Rose Report weekly edition is published and made available at the end of each trading week as a courtesy to producers, ginners, merchants, agents and all others who have an interest in the cotton market. To receive a personal copy of this report, obtain a free trial of the more comprehensive and up-to-date Rose Report daily edition or to learn more about our other cotton analyses and analytic services please visit: http://www.rosecottonreport.com/.