Daily Reports

December
13
2013

Thursday, December 12, 2013

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Mar 14 gained 57 points today after release of an export report that evinced net sales less than the 4-week rolling average but still well above pace to meet the USDA’s current export projection, to settle at 83.06. The settlement was near the top of today’s 144 point trading range (81.69 – 83.13). For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is...

December
11
2013

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

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Mar 14 unexpectedly surged ahead to gain 180 points today. The settlement was within the upper one quarter of today’s 235 point trading range (80.58 – 82.93). Volume quickened today with approximately 20.3K and 28.7K contracts traded for Mar 14 and in aggregate. Today’s front month action suggests that US nearby stocks are tighter than the latest WASDE report relayed; an expectation of a strong export report tomorrow and short-covering also likely contributed to today’s sharp, upward movement. For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is...

December
10
2013

Tuesday, December 10, 2013 – Includes Updated World and US S&D Analysis

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Mar 14 picked up 33 points on a WASDE report day that saw the US S&D little changed and the world and world less China ending stock projections increase approximately 700K and 1.2M statistical bales, to settle at 80.69. The settlement was within the upper one quarter of today’s 103 point trading range (70.76 – 80.79). Volume slowed a bit today with approximately 14.4K traded for Mar 14 and in aggregate. OI increased slightly on Mon; OI stood at approximately 111.6K and 160.8K for Mar 14 and across all active contracts, respectively. The WASDE report was effectively a nonevent in terms of price action, despite world and world less China ending stocks being projected to increase significantly over the consensus of polled analysts and the expectations of the trade. For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is for...

December
10
2013

Monday, December 9, 2013

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Mar 14 lost 5 points today to settle at 80.36. The settlement was within the lower one half of today’s 70 point trading range (80.05 – 80.75). Volume slowed today with approximately 9.6K and 14.6K lots traded for Mar 14 and in aggregate, respectively. OI increased slightly on Fri; OI stood at approximately 111.5K and 158.9K for Mar 14 and across all active contracts, respectively. There are defendable positions for both the bulls and the bears; our outlook and analysis is biased toward the bullish side. Mar 14 has consolidated and trended slightly up for a long enough period to both render the 30-day trend flat and to work off its bullish divergence. For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is...

December
7
2013

Saturday, December 7, 2013 – Weekly Edition

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Mar 14 picked up 106 points this week to settle at 80.41. Demand continues to be robust for US cotton; net sales of US cotton for the week ending Nov28 were off just a bit from last week at just over 253K RBs. The sales number was not only strong, when considering the holiday-shortened sales period per day sales actually exceeded the previous week.

December
6
2013

Friday, December 6, 2013

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Contrary to our expectations for today, Mar 14 surged ahead to settle 156 points higher today, on solid US economic news and perceived tightness of the current US crop. Part of the sharp, upward move may have been attributable to maneuvering by traders prior to the WASDE report release on Tue, Dec 10. The settlement was near the top of today’s expanded 168 point trading range (78.84 – 80.52). Given the recent consolidation and the pinching of the Bollinger Bands, we knew a larger move was possible, but we did not expect its occurrence today. For tomorrow, our directional call for Mar 14 is...